DK MetcalforMike Evans?

Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.

Our call

Lean DK Metcalf

DK Metcalf outscores Mike Evans in 53% of simulations.

That's close to a coin flip: Mike Evans comes out ahead in the other 47%. Lean DK Metcalf, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. DK Metcalf projects 0.3 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. DK Metcalf has the better matchup against the Cleveland Browns (4% fewer than average to WRs); Mike Evans faces the Denver Broncos (15% fewer than average to WRs).

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

DK Metcalf
Floor
3.5
Median
8.0
Ceiling
15.5
Big game (20+):
3%
Dud (under 6):
31%
Mike Evans
Floor
3.4
Median
7.8
Ceiling
14.4
Big game (20+):
2%
Dud (under 6):
34%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatDK MetcalfWR, PIT, Thu, Oct 1, 8:15 p.m. ETMike EvansWR, SF, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection8.98.6
PPR projection10.710.4
Standard projection7.06.9
Rank this weekWR28WR31
Matchupat CLEvs DEN
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game7.110.6
Last season per game10.58.7
Snap share, last game95%33%
Trade value35