DK MetcalforMike Evans?
Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean DK Metcalf
DK Metcalf outscores Mike Evans in 53% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Mike Evans comes out ahead in the other 47%. Lean DK Metcalf, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. DK Metcalf projects 0.3 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. DK Metcalf has the better matchup against the Cleveland Browns (4% fewer than average to WRs); Mike Evans faces the Denver Broncos (15% fewer than average to WRs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 3.5
- Median
- 8.0
- Ceiling
- 15.5
- Big game (20+):
- 3%
- Dud (under 6):
- 31%
- Floor
- 3.4
- Median
- 7.8
- Ceiling
- 14.4
- Big game (20+):
- 2%
- Dud (under 6):
- 34%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | DK MetcalfWR, PIT, Thu, Oct 1, 8:15 p.m. ET | Mike EvansWR, SF, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 8.9 | 8.6 |
| PPR projection | 10.7 | 10.4 |
| Standard projection | 7.0 | 6.9 |
| Rank this week | WR28 | WR31 |
| Matchup | at CLE | vs DEN |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 7.1 | 10.6 |
| Last season per game | 10.5 | 8.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 95% | 33% |
| Trade value | 3 | 5 |