George PickensorJameson Williams?
Week 5 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Start George Pickens
George Pickens outscores Jameson Williams in 55% of simulations.
Jameson Williams still comes out ahead in the other 45%, so George Pickens is the better bet, not a sure thing. George Pickens projects 1.0 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. Jameson Williams has the better matchup against the Arizona Cardinals (7% more than average to WRs); George Pickens faces the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6% fewer than average to WRs). George Pickens still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 3.9
- Median
- 10.0
- Ceiling
- 20.2
- Big game (20+):
- 10%
- Dud (under 6):
- 23%
- Floor
- 2.9
- Median
- 8.7
- Ceiling
- 19.3
- Big game (20+):
- 9%
- Dud (under 6):
- 32%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | George PickensWR, DAL, Thu, Oct 8, 8:15 p.m. ET | Jameson WilliamsWR, DET, Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 11.2 | 10.2 |
| PPR projection | 13.7 | 12.2 |
| Standard projection | 8.8 | 8.1 |
| Rank this week | WR15 | WR18 |
| Matchup | vs TB | at ARI |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 7.9 | 7.7 |
| Last season per game | 14.4 | 11.0 |
| Snap share, last game | 86% | 99% |
| Trade value | 26 | 11 |