Hunter HenryorJake Ferguson?
Week 6 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Start Hunter Henry
Hunter Henry outscores Jake Ferguson in 56% of simulations.
Jake Ferguson still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Hunter Henry is the better bet, not a sure thing. Hunter Henry projects 0.9 half-PPR points ahead in Week 6. Hunter Henry has the better matchup against the New York Jets (7% fewer than average to TEs); Jake Ferguson faces the Green Bay Packers (19% fewer than average to TEs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.9
- Median
- 6.2
- Ceiling
- 15.2
- Big game (15+):
- 11%
- Dud (under 5):
- 39%
- Floor
- 1.6
- Median
- 5.4
- Ceiling
- 12.7
- Big game (15+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 5):
- 46%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Hunter HenryTE, NE, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 p.m. ET | Jake FergusonTE, DAL, Sun, Oct 18, 8:20 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 7.5 | 6.6 |
| PPR projection | 9.0 | 8.3 |
| Standard projection | 5.9 | 4.9 |
| Rank this week | TE15 | TE18 |
| Matchup | vs NYJ | at GB |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 6.2 | 6.7 |
| Last season per game | 8.8 | 8.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 64% | 83% |
| Trade value | — | — |