Jake FergusonorMichael Mayer?
Week 9 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Lean Michael Mayer
Michael Mayer outscores Jake Ferguson in 54% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Jake Ferguson comes out ahead in the other 46%. Lean Michael Mayer, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Michael Mayer projects 0.4 half-PPR points ahead in Week 9. Jake Ferguson has the better matchup against the Indianapolis Colts (11% more than average to TEs); Michael Mayer faces the San Francisco 49ers (4% fewer than average to TEs). Michael Mayer still wins more often despite that. Jake Ferguson is listed as questionable.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 0.1
- Median
- 4.5
- Ceiling
- 12.1
- Big game (15+):
- 5%
- Dud (under 5):
- 55%
- Floor
- 1.4
- Median
- 5.1
- Ceiling
- 12.5
- Big game (15+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 5):
- 50%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Jake FergusonTE, DAL, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 p.m. ET | Michael MayerTE, LV, Sun, Nov 8, 4:05 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 5.7 | 6.1 |
| PPR projection | 7.3 | 8.0 |
| Standard projection | 4.2 | 4.3 |
| Rank this week | TE25 | TE23 |
| Matchup | at IND | at SF |
| Injury | Questionable | None |
| 2026 points per game | 5.1 | 7.4 |
| Last season per game | 8.7 | 4.3 |
| Snap share, last game | 56% | 79% |
| Trade value | — | — |