Michael MayerorMike Gesicki?
Week 5 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Start Mike Gesicki
Mike Gesicki outscores Michael Mayer in 67% of simulations.
Michael Mayer still comes out ahead in the other 33%, so Mike Gesicki is the better bet, not a sure thing. Mike Gesicki projects 3.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. Mike Gesicki has the better matchup against the Miami Dolphins (27% more than average to TEs); Michael Mayer faces the New England Patriots (14% fewer than average to TEs). Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, Mike Gesicki wins 72%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.2
- Median
- 4.8
- Ceiling
- 11.9
- Big game (15+):
- 5%
- Dud (under 5):
- 52%
- Floor
- 2.4
- Median
- 7.4
- Ceiling
- 17.1
- Big game (15+):
- 15%
- Dud (under 5):
- 31%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
Share this
| Stat | Michael MayerTE, LV, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | Mike GesickiTE, CIN, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 5.7 | 8.8 |
| PPR projection | 7.5 | 10.4 |
| Standard projection | 4.0 | 7.2 |
| Rank this week | TE28 | TE9 |
| Matchup | at NE | at MIA |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 8.2 | 13.0 |
| Last season per game | 4.3 | 4.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 88% | 62% |
| Trade value | — | — |