Jakobi MeyersorJosh Downs?

Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.

Our call

Lean Josh Downs

Josh Downs outscores Jakobi Meyers in 50% of simulations.

That's close to a coin flip: Jakobi Meyers comes out ahead in the other 50%. Lean Josh Downs, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Josh Downs projects 0.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Josh Downs has the better matchup against the Washington Commanders (23% more than average to WRs); Jakobi Meyers faces the Cincinnati Bengals (13% fewer than average to WRs).

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

Jakobi Meyers
Floor
3.5
Median
7.9
Ceiling
14.8
Big game (20+):
2%
Dud (under 6):
32%
Josh Downs
Floor
3.3
Median
8.0
Ceiling
15.2
Big game (20+):
3%
Dud (under 6):
32%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatJakobi MeyersWR, JAX, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ETJosh DownsWR, IND, Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 a.m. ET
Half-PPR projection8.78.8
PPR projection10.611.2
Standard projection6.86.5
Rank this weekWR30WR29
Matchupat CINat WAS
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game10.18.5
Last season per game8.66.8
Snap share, last game81%68%
Trade value5—