Josh DownsorKeenan Allen?
Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Josh Downs
Josh Downs outscores Keenan Allen in 51% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Keenan Allen comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean Josh Downs, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Keenan Allen projects 0.5 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. The matchups don't separate them: Josh Downs faces the Washington Commanders (23% more than average to WRs), Keenan Allen faces the Washington Commanders (23% more than average to WRs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 3.3
- Median
- 8.0
- Ceiling
- 15.2
- Big game (20+):
- 3%
- Dud (under 6):
- 32%
- Floor
- 2.5
- Median
- 7.8
- Ceiling
- 17.4
- Big game (20+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 6):
- 36%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Josh DownsWR, IND, Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 a.m. ET | Keenan AllenWR, IND, Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 a.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 8.8 | 9.3 |
| PPR projection | 11.2 | 11.9 |
| Standard projection | 6.5 | 6.7 |
| Rank this week | WR29 | WR25 |
| Matchup | at WAS | at WAS |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 8.5 | 7.5 |
| Last season per game | 6.8 | 8.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 68% | 73% |
| Trade value | — | — |