Josh DownsorKeenan Allen?
Week 10 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Start Keenan Allen
Keenan Allen outscores Josh Downs in 56% of simulations.
Josh Downs still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Keenan Allen is the better bet, not a sure thing. Keenan Allen projects 1.4 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. The matchups don't separate them: Keenan Allen faces the Miami Dolphins (11% fewer than average to WRs), Josh Downs faces the Miami Dolphins (11% fewer than average to WRs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.2
- Median
- 5.4
- Ceiling
- 10.5
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 58%
- Floor
- 2.1
- Median
- 6.2
- Ceiling
- 13.6
- Big game (20+):
- 2%
- Dud (under 6):
- 48%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Josh DownsWR, IND, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET | Keenan AllenWR, IND, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 6.0 | 7.4 |
| PPR projection | 7.7 | 9.7 |
| Standard projection | 4.4 | 5.1 |
| Rank this week | WR53 | WR41 |
| Matchup | vs MIA | vs MIA |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 6.5 | 7.6 |
| Last season per game | 6.8 | 8.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 77% | 56% |
| Trade value | — | — |