Jaxon Smith-NjigbaorJonathan Taylor?
Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver or running back.
Our call
Start Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Jaxon Smith-Njigba outscores Jonathan Taylor in 60% of simulations.
Jonathan Taylor still comes out ahead in the other 40%, so Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the better bet, not a sure thing. Jaxon Smith-Njigba projects 2.7 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Jonathan Taylor has the better matchup against the Washington Commanders (4% more than average to RBs); Jaxon Smith-Njigba faces the Los Angeles Chargers (8% fewer than average to WRs). Jaxon Smith-Njigba still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Jaxon Smith-Njigba wins 65%; in Standard leagues, Jaxon Smith-Njigba wins 54%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 11.5
- Median
- 21.4
- Ceiling
- 34.8
- Big game (20+):
- 56%
- Dud (under 6):
- 1%
- Floor
- 7.0
- Median
- 17.5
- Ceiling
- 35.5
- Big game (20+):
- 42%
- Dud (under 6):
- 7%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Jaxon Smith-NjigbaWR, SEA, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET | Jonathan TaylorRB, IND, Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 a.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 22.5 | 19.8 |
| PPR projection | 26.3 | 21.3 |
| Standard projection | 18.7 | 18.4 |
| Rank this week | WR1 | RB3 |
| Matchup | vs LAC | at WAS |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 30.2 | 19.7 |
| Last season per game | 17.7 | 20.0 |
| Snap share, last game | 87% | 85% |
| Trade value | 99 | 68 |