Jordan LoveorKyler Murray?
Week 4 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Jordan Love
Jordan Love outscores Kyler Murray in 56% of simulations.
Kyler Murray still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Jordan Love is the better bet, not a sure thing. Jordan Love projects 1.4 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. The matchups don't separate them: Jordan Love faces the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10% more than average to QBs), Kyler Murray faces the Miami Dolphins (12% more than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 8.8
- Median
- 16.4
- Ceiling
- 27.5
- Big game (25+):
- 15%
- Dud (under 12):
- 25%
- Floor
- 10.1
- Median
- 15.3
- Ceiling
- 21.9
- Big game (25+):
- 4%
- Dud (under 12):
- 22%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Jordan LoveQB, GB, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Kyler MurrayQB, MIN, Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 17.2 | 15.8 |
| PPR projection | 17.2 | 15.8 |
| Standard projection | 17.2 | 15.8 |
| Rank this week | QB13 | QB17 |
| Matchup | at TB | vs MIA |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 17.3 | 5.0 |
| Last season per game | 15.7 | 15.6 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | — |