Jordan WatkinsorKC Concepcion?
Week 10 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean KC Concepcion
KC Concepcion outscores Jordan Watkins in 50% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Jordan Watkins comes out ahead in the other 50%. Lean KC Concepcion, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Jordan Watkins projects 0.3 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Jordan Watkins has the better matchup against the Dallas Cowboys (21% more than average to WRs); KC Concepcion faces the Houston Texans (average to WRs). KC Concepcion still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, KC Concepcion wins 55%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.9
- Median
- 8.7
- Ceiling
- 19.1
- Big game (20+):
- 9%
- Dud (under 6):
- 32%
- Floor
- 2.9
- Median
- 8.6
- Ceiling
- 19.6
- Big game (20+):
- 9%
- Dud (under 6):
- 32%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
Share this
| Stat | Jordan WatkinsWR, SF, Sun, Nov 15, 4:25 p.m. ET | KC ConcepcionWR, CLE, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 10.2 | 9.9 |
| PPR projection | 11.7 | 12.1 |
| Standard projection | 8.7 | 7.6 |
| Rank this week | WR23 | WR24 |
| Matchup | at DAL | vs HOU |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 8.3 | 7.8 |
| Last season per game | 1.8 | — |
| Snap share, last game | 77% | 93% |
| Trade value | 3 | 8 |