Josh DownsorMack Hollins?
Week 5 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Start Josh Downs
Josh Downs outscores Mack Hollins in 55% of simulations.
Mack Hollins still comes out ahead in the other 45%, so Josh Downs is the better bet, not a sure thing. Josh Downs projects 0.4 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. The matchups don't separate them: Josh Downs faces the Pittsburgh Steelers (6% more than average to WRs), Mack Hollins faces the Las Vegas Raiders (average to WRs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.6
- Median
- 6.4
- Ceiling
- 12.7
- Big game (20+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 45%
- Floor
- 2.5
- Median
- 6.1
- Ceiling
- 12.0
- Big game (20+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 49%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Josh DownsWR, IND, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | Mack HollinsWR, NE, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 7.2 | 6.8 |
| PPR projection | 9.2 | 8.6 |
| Standard projection | 5.1 | 5.1 |
| Rank this week | WR41 | WR45 |
| Matchup | at PIT | vs LV |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 7.2 | 7.1 |
| Last season per game | 6.8 | 6.5 |
| Snap share, last game | 77% | 41% |
| Trade value | — | — |