Luther Burden IIIorMichael Pittman?
Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Michael Pittman
Michael Pittman outscores Luther Burden III in 52% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Luther Burden III comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean Michael Pittman, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Michael Pittman projects 0.3 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. The matchups don't separate them: Michael Pittman faces the Cleveland Browns (4% fewer than average to WRs), Luther Burden III faces the New York Jets (4% fewer than average to WRs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.7
- Median
- 6.4
- Ceiling
- 16.3
- Big game (20+):
- 5%
- Dud (under 6):
- 47%
- Floor
- 2.5
- Median
- 7.0
- Ceiling
- 15.1
- Big game (20+):
- 3%
- Dud (under 6):
- 41%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Luther Burden IIIWR, CHI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Michael PittmanWR, PIT, Thu, Oct 1, 8:15 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 7.8 | 8.1 |
| PPR projection | 9.7 | 10.1 |
| Standard projection | 5.9 | 6.1 |
| Rank this week | WR40 | WR37 |
| Matchup | vs NYJ | at CLE |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 9.3 | 5.0 |
| Last season per game | 7.0 | 9.6 |
| Snap share, last game | 61% | 73% |
| Trade value | — | — |