Mark AndrewsorMike Gesicki?
Week 5 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Start Mike Gesicki
Mike Gesicki outscores Mark Andrews in 64% of simulations.
Mark Andrews still comes out ahead in the other 36%, so Mike Gesicki is the better bet, not a sure thing. Mike Gesicki projects 2.3 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. Mike Gesicki has the better matchup against the Miami Dolphins (28% more than average to TEs); Mark Andrews faces the Atlanta Falcons (10% fewer than average to TEs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.2
- Median
- 5.2
- Ceiling
- 14.2
- Big game (15+):
- 9%
- Dud (under 5):
- 49%
- Floor
- 2.4
- Median
- 7.4
- Ceiling
- 17.1
- Big game (15+):
- 15%
- Dud (under 5):
- 31%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Mark AndrewsTE, BAL, Sun, Oct 11, 8:20 p.m. ET | Mike GesickiTE, CIN, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 6.5 | 8.8 |
| PPR projection | 8.2 | 10.4 |
| Standard projection | 4.8 | 7.2 |
| Rank this week | TE20 | TE9 |
| Matchup | at ATL | at MIA |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 7.5 | 13.0 |
| Last season per game | 6.3 | 4.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 58% | 62% |
| Trade value | — | — |