Darren WallerorMark Andrews?
Week 4 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Start Darren Waller
Darren Waller outscores Mark Andrews in 66% of simulations.
Mark Andrews still comes out ahead in the other 34%, so Darren Waller is the better bet, not a sure thing. Darren Waller projects 4.3 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Darren Waller has the better matchup against the Detroit Lions (45% more than average to TEs); Mark Andrews faces the Tennessee Titans (8% fewer than average to TEs). Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, Darren Waller wins 71%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.1
- Median
- 8.0
- Ceiling
- 20.6
- Big game (15+):
- 21%
- Dud (under 5):
- 31%
- Floor
- 1.0
- Median
- 4.6
- Ceiling
- 13.1
- Big game (15+):
- 7%
- Dud (under 5):
- 54%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Darren WallerTE, CAR, Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 p.m. ET | Mark AndrewsTE, BAL, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 10.2 | 5.9 |
| PPR projection | 11.9 | 7.5 |
| Standard projection | 8.5 | 4.3 |
| Rank this week | TE9 | TE28 |
| Matchup | vs DET | vs TEN |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 9.4 | 6.2 |
| Last season per game | 8.5 | 6.3 |
| Snap share, last game | 51% | 52% |
| Trade value | — | — |