Darren WallerorMark Andrews?
Week 10 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Start Darren Waller
Darren Waller outscores Mark Andrews in 71% of simulations.
Mark Andrews still comes out ahead in the other 29%, so Darren Waller is the better bet, not a sure thing. Darren Waller projects 4.8 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. Darren Waller has the better matchup against the New Orleans Saints (6% more than average to TEs); Mark Andrews faces the Los Angeles Chargers (26% fewer than average to TEs). Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, Darren Waller wins 77%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.8
- Median
- 6.9
- Ceiling
- 18.4
- Big game (15+):
- 16%
- Dud (under 5):
- 36%
- Floor
- 0.7
- Median
- 3.3
- Ceiling
- 9.3
- Big game (15+):
- 2%
- Dud (under 5):
- 69%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Darren WallerTE, CAR, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET | Mark AndrewsTE, BAL, Mon, Nov 16, 8:15 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 9.0 | 4.2 |
| PPR projection | 10.5 | 5.4 |
| Standard projection | 7.4 | 2.9 |
| Rank this week | TE5 | TE28 |
| Matchup | at NO | vs LAC |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 8.2 | 4.8 |
| Last season per game | 8.5 | 6.3 |
| Snap share, last game | 53% | 57% |
| Trade value | 2 | — |