Isaiah LikelyorMark Andrews?
Week 5 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Lean Isaiah Likely
Isaiah Likely outscores Mark Andrews in 54% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Mark Andrews comes out ahead in the other 46%. Lean Isaiah Likely, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Isaiah Likely projects 1.0 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. Isaiah Likely has the better matchup against the Washington Commanders (33% more than average to TEs); Mark Andrews faces the Atlanta Falcons (10% fewer than average to TEs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.2
- Median
- 5.9
- Ceiling
- 16.2
- Big game (15+):
- 12%
- Dud (under 5):
- 44%
- Floor
- 1.2
- Median
- 5.2
- Ceiling
- 14.2
- Big game (15+):
- 9%
- Dud (under 5):
- 49%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Isaiah LikelyTE, NYG, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | Mark AndrewsTE, BAL, Sun, Oct 11, 8:20 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 7.5 | 6.5 |
| PPR projection | 9.6 | 8.2 |
| Standard projection | 5.4 | 4.8 |
| Rank this week | TE14 | TE18 |
| Matchup | at WAS | at ATL |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 10.5 | 7.5 |
| Last season per game | 4.0 | 6.3 |
| Snap share, last game | 66% | 58% |
| Trade value | — | — |