Pat FreiermuthorTyler Higbee?
Week 5 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Lean Pat Freiermuth
Pat Freiermuth outscores Tyler Higbee in 52% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Tyler Higbee comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean Pat Freiermuth, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Pat Freiermuth projects 0.8 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. Pat Freiermuth has the better matchup against the Indianapolis Colts (10% more than average to TEs); Tyler Higbee faces the Buffalo Bills (32% fewer than average to TEs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.5
- Median
- 5.9
- Ceiling
- 15.1
- Big game (15+):
- 10%
- Dud (under 5):
- 43%
- Floor
- 1.7
- Median
- 5.5
- Ceiling
- 12.8
- Big game (15+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 5):
- 45%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Pat FreiermuthTE, PIT, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | Tyler HigbeeTE, LAR, Mon, Oct 12, 8:15 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 7.3 | 6.5 |
| PPR projection | 8.9 | 8.0 |
| Standard projection | 5.7 | 5.0 |
| Rank this week | TE15 | TE18 |
| Matchup | vs IND | vs BUF |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 8.0 | 8.5 |
| Last season per game | 6.2 | 5.9 |
| Snap share, last game | 75% | 65% |
| Trade value | — | — |