Brenton StrangeorPat Freiermuth?
Week 5 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Lean Brenton Strange
Brenton Strange outscores Pat Freiermuth in 51% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Pat Freiermuth comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean Brenton Strange, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Pat Freiermuth projects 0.6 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Pat Freiermuth has the better matchup against the Indianapolis Colts (10% more than average to TEs); Brenton Strange faces the Philadelphia Eagles (42% fewer than average to TEs). Brenton Strange still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.4
- Median
- 5.9
- Ceiling
- 12.0
- Big game (15+):
- 4%
- Dud (under 5):
- 40%
- Floor
- 1.5
- Median
- 5.9
- Ceiling
- 15.1
- Big game (15+):
- 10%
- Dud (under 5):
- 43%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Brenton StrangeTE, JAX, Sun, Oct 11, 9:30 a.m. ET | Pat FreiermuthTE, PIT, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 6.7 | 7.3 |
| PPR projection | 8.3 | 8.9 |
| Standard projection | 5.0 | 5.7 |
| Rank this week | TE17 | TE15 |
| Matchup | vs PHI | vs IND |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 7.4 | 8.0 |
| Last season per game | 7.9 | 6.2 |
| Snap share, last game | 87% | 75% |
| Trade value | — | — |