Brock BowersorPat Freiermuth?
Week 6 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Start Brock Bowers
Brock Bowers outscores Pat Freiermuth in 62% of simulations.
Pat Freiermuth still comes out ahead in the other 38%, so Brock Bowers is the better bet, not a sure thing. Brock Bowers projects 3.0 half-PPR points ahead in Week 6. Pat Freiermuth has the better matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (19% more than average to TEs); Brock Bowers faces the Buffalo Bills (32% fewer than average to TEs). Brock Bowers still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 3.9
- Median
- 10.8
- Ceiling
- 22.9
- Big game (15+):
- 30%
- Dud (under 5):
- 16%
- Floor
- 2.1
- Median
- 7.8
- Ceiling
- 19.5
- Big game (15+):
- 19%
- Dud (under 5):
- 31%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Brock BowersTE, LV, Sun, Oct 18, 4:25 p.m. ET | Pat FreiermuthTE, PIT, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 12.5 | 9.5 |
| PPR projection | 15.2 | 11.3 |
| Standard projection | 9.9 | 7.7 |
| Rank this week | TE4 | TE8 |
| Matchup | vs BUF | at TB |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 19.7 | 10.2 |
| Last season per game | 12.0 | 6.2 |
| Snap share, last game | 70% | 68% |
| Trade value | 39 | — |