Nate AdkinsorNoah Gray?
Week 9 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Start Noah Gray
Noah Gray outscores Nate Adkins in 56% of simulations.
Nate Adkins still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Noah Gray is the better bet, not a sure thing. Noah Gray projects 0.2 half-PPR points ahead in Week 9. The matchups don't separate them: Noah Gray faces the New York Jets (8% more than average to TEs), Nate Adkins faces the Carolina Panthers (3% more than average to TEs). Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, Noah Gray wins 50%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 0.5
- Median
- 2.8
- Ceiling
- 8.5
- Big game (15+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 5):
- 72%
- Floor
- 1.0
- Median
- 3.4
- Ceiling
- 8.2
- Big game (15+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 5):
- 69%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Nate AdkinsTE, DEN, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 p.m. ET | Noah GrayTE, KC, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 3.9 | 4.1 |
| PPR projection | 4.5 | 5.1 |
| Standard projection | 3.3 | 3.1 |
| Rank this week | TE35 | TE34 |
| Matchup | at CAR | vs NYJ |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 5.2 | 4.3 |
| Last season per game | 2.3 | 2.0 |
| Snap share, last game | 31% | 54% |
| Trade value | — | — |