Pat FreiermuthorRico Dowdle?
Week 8 start/sit decision, tight end or running back.
Our call
Start Rico Dowdle
Rico Dowdle outscores Pat Freiermuth in 60% of simulations.
Pat Freiermuth still comes out ahead in the other 40%, so Rico Dowdle is the better bet, not a sure thing. Rico Dowdle projects 2.6 half-PPR points ahead in Week 8. The matchups don't separate them: Rico Dowdle faces the Cleveland Browns (5% fewer than average to RBs), Pat Freiermuth faces the Cleveland Browns (7% fewer than average to TEs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.3
- Median
- 5.4
- Ceiling
- 14.1
- Big game (15+):
- 9%
- Dud (under 5):
- 47%
- Floor
- 2.2
- Median
- 7.4
- Ceiling
- 18.3
- Big game (20+):
- 7%
- Dud (under 6):
- 40%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Pat FreiermuthTE, PIT, Sun, Nov 1, 1:00 p.m. ET | Rico DowdleRB, PIT, Sun, Nov 1, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 6.7 | 9.3 |
| PPR projection | 8.1 | 10.7 |
| Standard projection | 5.2 | 8.0 |
| Rank this week | TE18 | RB22 |
| Matchup | vs CLE | vs CLE |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 8.0 | 6.6 |
| Last season per game | 6.2 | 11.6 |
| Snap share, last game | 53% | 44% |
| Trade value | — | 3 |