Payne DurhamorPharaoh Brown?
Week 9 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Start Pharaoh Brown
Pharaoh Brown outscores Payne Durham in 63% of simulations.
Payne Durham still comes out ahead in the other 37%, so Pharaoh Brown is the better bet, not a sure thing. Pharaoh Brown projects 0.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 9. The matchups don't separate them: Pharaoh Brown faces the Dallas Cowboys (6% fewer than average to TEs), Payne Durham faces the Chicago Bears (9% fewer than average to TEs). Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, Payne Durham is the pick at 59%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 0.0
- Median
- 0.2
- Ceiling
- 0.7
- Big game (15+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 5):
- >99%
- Floor
- 0.1
- Median
- 0.3
- Ceiling
- 0.8
- Big game (15+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 5):
- >99%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Payne DurhamTE, TB, Sun, Nov 8, 8:20 p.m. ET | Pharaoh BrownTE, IND, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 0.3 | 0.4 |
| PPR projection | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Standard projection | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| Rank this week | TE80 | TE78 |
| Matchup | at CHI | vs DAL |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 0.5 | 1.2 |
| Last season per game | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Snap share, last game | 38% | 5% |
| Trade value | — | — |