Travis EtienneorTreVeyon Henderson?

Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.

Our call

Lean Travis Etienne

Travis Etienne outscores TreVeyon Henderson in 54% of simulations.

That's close to a coin flip: TreVeyon Henderson comes out ahead in the other 46%. Lean Travis Etienne, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. TreVeyon Henderson projects 0.4 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. TreVeyon Henderson has the better matchup against the Buffalo Bills (16% more than average to RBs); Travis Etienne faces the Atlanta Falcons (12% fewer than average to RBs). Travis Etienne still wins more often despite that.

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

Travis Etienne
Floor
4.7
Median
9.7
Ceiling
17.7
Big game (20+):
6%
Dud (under 6):
19%
TreVeyon Henderson
Floor
2.5
Median
8.7
Ceiling
21.4
Big game (20+):
12%
Dud (under 6):
34%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatTravis EtienneRB, NO, Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 p.m. ETTreVeyon HendersonRB, NE, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection10.510.9
PPR projection11.711.7
Standard projection9.210.1
Rank this weekRB22RB20
Matchupvs ATLat BUF
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game8.58.5
Last season per game13.911.1
Snap share, last game38%37%
Trade value145