Aaron JonesorChuba Hubbard?
Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Aaron Jones
Aaron Jones outscores Chuba Hubbard in 56% of simulations.
Chuba Hubbard still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Aaron Jones is the better bet, not a sure thing. Aaron Jones projects 0.4 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Aaron Jones has the better matchup against the Miami Dolphins (21% more than average to RBs); Chuba Hubbard faces the Detroit Lions (11% fewer than average to RBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 5.1
- Median
- 10.3
- Ceiling
- 17.7
- Big game (20+):
- 5%
- Dud (under 6):
- 15%
- Floor
- 3.5
- Median
- 9.0
- Ceiling
- 18.6
- Big game (20+):
- 8%
- Dud (under 6):
- 29%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Aaron JonesRB, MIN, Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 p.m. ET | Chuba HubbardRB, CAR, Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 10.9 | 10.5 |
| PPR projection | 12.1 | 11.7 |
| Standard projection | 9.7 | 9.3 |
| Rank this week | RB18 | RB21 |
| Matchup | vs MIA | vs DET |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 10.7 | 16.2 |
| Last season per game | 8.7 | 7.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 80% | 84% |
| Trade value | 3 | 13 |