Aaron JonesorJaylen Warren?
Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Lean Jaylen Warren
Jaylen Warren outscores Aaron Jones in 55% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Aaron Jones comes out ahead in the other 45%. Lean Jaylen Warren, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Jaylen Warren projects 1.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Aaron Jones has the better matchup against the Miami Dolphins (21% more than average to RBs); Jaylen Warren faces the Cleveland Browns (5% fewer than average to RBs). Jaylen Warren still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 5.1
- Median
- 10.3
- Ceiling
- 17.7
- Big game (20+):
- 5%
- Dud (under 6):
- 15%
- Floor
- 5.4
- Median
- 11.1
- Ceiling
- 19.6
- Big game (20+):
- 9%
- Dud (under 6):
- 13%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Aaron JonesRB, MIN, Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 p.m. ET | Jaylen WarrenRB, PIT, Thu, Oct 1, 8:15 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 10.9 | 12.0 |
| PPR projection | 12.1 | 13.4 |
| Standard projection | 9.7 | 10.6 |
| Rank this week | RB18 | RB14 |
| Matchup | vs MIA | at CLE |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 10.7 | 11.9 |
| Last season per game | 8.7 | 12.3 |
| Snap share, last game | 80% | 90% |
| Trade value | 3 | 21 |