Aaron JonesorJaylen Warren?
Week 10 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Jaylen Warren
Jaylen Warren outscores Aaron Jones in 78% of simulations.
Aaron Jones comes out ahead in the other 22%. Jaylen Warren projects 7.6 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. The matchups don't separate them: Jaylen Warren faces the Cincinnati Bengals (13% more than average to RBs), Aaron Jones faces the Green Bay Packers (8% more than average to RBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 3.5
- Median
- 8.1
- Ceiling
- 15.3
- Big game (20+):
- 3%
- Dud (under 6):
- 30%
- Floor
- 6.7
- Median
- 14.9
- Ceiling
- 27.5
- Big game (20+):
- 29%
- Dud (under 6):
- 7%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Aaron JonesRB, MIN, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET | Jaylen WarrenRB, PIT, Sun, Nov 15, 8:20 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 8.8 | 16.4 |
| PPR projection | 9.9 | 17.9 |
| Standard projection | 7.7 | 14.9 |
| Rank this week | RB29 | RB7 |
| Matchup | at GB | at CIN |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 9.4 | 16.0 |
| Last season per game | 8.7 | 12.3 |
| Snap share, last game | 35% | 58% |
| Trade value | — | 48 |