Aaron JonesorDe'Von Achane?

Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.

Our call

Lean De'Von Achane

De'Von Achane outscores Aaron Jones in 52% of simulations.

That's close to a coin flip: Aaron Jones comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean De'Von Achane, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. De'Von Achane projects 0.5 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Aaron Jones has the better matchup against the Miami Dolphins (21% more than average to RBs); De'Von Achane faces the Minnesota Vikings (18% fewer than average to RBs). De'Von Achane still wins more often despite that.

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

Aaron Jones
Floor
5.1
Median
10.3
Ceiling
17.7
Big game (20+):
5%
Dud (under 6):
15%
De'Von Achane
Floor
5.7
Median
10.9
Ceiling
18.3
Big game (20+):
7%
Dud (under 6):
12%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatAaron JonesRB, MIN, Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 p.m. ETDe'Von AchaneRB, MIA, Sun, Oct 4, 4:05 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection10.911.4
PPR projection12.112.9
Standard projection9.710.0
Rank this weekRB18RB16
Matchupvs MIAat MIN
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game10.77.0
Last season per game8.718.1
Snap share, last game80%5%
Trade value324