A.J. BrownorMike Evans?
Week 7 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Start Mike Evans
Mike Evans outscores A.J. Brown in 56% of simulations.
A.J. Brown still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Mike Evans is the better bet, not a sure thing. Mike Evans projects 1.2 half-PPR points ahead in Week 7. The matchups don't separate them: Mike Evans faces the Atlanta Falcons (11% more than average to WRs), A.J. Brown faces the Chicago Bears (14% more than average to WRs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.8
- Median
- 9.3
- Ceiling
- 21.3
- Big game (20+):
- 12%
- Dud (under 6):
- 29%
- Floor
- 4.6
- Median
- 10.8
- Ceiling
- 20.4
- Big game (20+):
- 11%
- Dud (under 6):
- 18%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
Share this
| Stat | A.J. BrownWR, NE, Thu, Oct 22, 8:15 p.m. ET | Mike EvansWR, SF, Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 10.8 | 12.0 |
| PPR projection | 13.3 | 14.2 |
| Standard projection | 8.3 | 9.7 |
| Rank this week | WR23 | WR19 |
| Matchup | at CHI | at ATL |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 4.2 | 12.6 |
| Last season per game | 12.1 | 8.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 76% | 40% |
| Trade value | 3 | 11 |