Brian Thomas Jr.orJaylin Noel?
Week 6 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Start Brian Thomas Jr.
Brian Thomas Jr. outscores Jaylin Noel in 57% of simulations.
Jaylin Noel still comes out ahead in the other 43%, so Brian Thomas Jr. is the better bet, not a sure thing. Brian Thomas Jr. projects 0.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 6. The matchups don't separate them: Brian Thomas Jr. faces the Houston Texans (1% more than average to WRs), Jaylin Noel faces the Jacksonville Jaguars (4% more than average to WRs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.2
- Median
- 5.3
- Ceiling
- 10.9
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 57%
- Floor
- 1.0
- Median
- 4.4
- Ceiling
- 12.3
- Big game (20+):
- 2%
- Dud (under 6):
- 63%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Brian Thomas Jr.WR, JAX, Sun, Oct 18, 9:30 a.m. ET | Jaylin NoelWR, HOU, Sun, Oct 18, 9:30 a.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 6.0 | 5.9 |
| PPR projection | 7.3 | 7.1 |
| Standard projection | 4.8 | 4.8 |
| Rank this week | WR45 | WR48 |
| Matchup | vs HOU | at JAX |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 4.2 | 7.6 |
| Last season per game | 8.2 | 3.3 |
| Snap share, last game | 51% | 45% |
| Trade value | — | — |