Caleb WilliamsorDeshaun Watson?
Week 5 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Lean Caleb Williams
Caleb Williams outscores Deshaun Watson in 54% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Deshaun Watson comes out ahead in the other 46%. Lean Caleb Williams, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Caleb Williams projects 0.9 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. Deshaun Watson has the better matchup against the New York Jets (9% more than average to QBs); Caleb Williams faces the Green Bay Packers (9% fewer than average to QBs). Caleb Williams still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 8.8
- Median
- 17.3
- Ceiling
- 29.8
- Big game (25+):
- 20%
- Dud (under 12):
- 24%
- Floor
- 10.2
- Median
- 16.8
- Ceiling
- 25.8
- Big game (25+):
- 12%
- Dud (under 12):
- 19%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
Share this
| Stat | Caleb WilliamsQB, CHI, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | Deshaun WatsonQB, CLE, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 18.4 | 17.5 |
| PPR projection | 18.4 | 17.5 |
| Standard projection | 18.3 | 17.5 |
| Rank this week | QB6 | QB10 |
| Matchup | at GB | at NYJ |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 22.5 | 16.7 |
| Last season per game | 18.7 | — |
| Snap share, last game | 86% | 100% |
| Trade value | 17 | — |