Carnell TateorQuentin Johnston?

Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.

Our call

Lean Carnell Tate

Carnell Tate outscores Quentin Johnston in 51% of simulations.

That's close to a coin flip: Quentin Johnston comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean Carnell Tate, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Carnell Tate projects 0.2 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Carnell Tate has the better matchup against the Baltimore Ravens (15% more than average to WRs); Quentin Johnston faces the Seattle Seahawks (19% fewer than average to WRs). Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Carnell Tate wins 58%; in Standard leagues, Quentin Johnston is the pick at 55%.

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

Carnell Tate
Floor
2.7
Median
6.3
Ceiling
12.0
Big game (20+):
<1%
Dud (under 6):
46%
Quentin Johnston
Floor
2.2
Median
6.0
Ceiling
12.6
Big game (20+):
1%
Dud (under 6):
50%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatCarnell TateWR, TEN, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ETQuentin JohnstonWR, LAC, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection7.06.8
PPR projection9.58.1
Standard projection4.65.4
Rank this weekWR42WR46
Matchupat BALat SEA
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game6.33.4
Last season per game—11.2
Snap share, last game88%87%
Trade value——