Carson WentzorDrew Lock?
Week 9 start/sit decision, quarterback versus quarterback.
Our call
Start Drew Lock
Drew Lock outscores Carson Wentz in 71% of simulations.
Carson Wentz still comes out ahead in the other 29%, so Drew Lock is the better bet, not a sure thing. Drew Lock projects 0.3 half-PPR points ahead in Week 9. Drew Lock has the better matchup against the Arizona Cardinals (18% more than average to QBs); Carson Wentz faces the Buffalo Bills (6% fewer than average to QBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 0.4
- Median
- 0.7
- Ceiling
- 1.1
- Big game (25+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 12):
- >99%
- Floor
- 0.5
- Median
- 0.9
- Ceiling
- 1.6
- Big game (25+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 12):
- >99%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Carson WentzQB, MIN, Mon, Nov 9, 8:15 p.m. ET | Drew LockQB, SEA, Sun, Nov 8, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| PPR projection | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| Standard projection | 0.7 | 1.0 |
| Rank this week | QB28 | QB26 |
| Matchup | vs BUF | vs ARI |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 12.8 | 17.1 |
| Last season per game | 14.1 | 0.0 |
| Snap share, last game | 100% | 100% |
| Trade value | — | — |