Christian McCaffreyorJavonte Williams?
Week 5 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Christian McCaffrey
Christian McCaffrey outscores Javonte Williams in 58% of simulations.
Javonte Williams still comes out ahead in the other 42%, so Christian McCaffrey is the better bet, not a sure thing. Christian McCaffrey projects 2.0 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. The matchups don't separate them: Christian McCaffrey faces the Seattle Seahawks (15% fewer than average to RBs), Javonte Williams faces the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8% fewer than average to RBs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 9.2
- Median
- 16.8
- Ceiling
- 27.5
- Big game (20+):
- 34%
- Dud (under 6):
- 2%
- Floor
- 7.3
- Median
- 14.5
- Ceiling
- 26.4
- Big game (20+):
- 26%
- Dud (under 6):
- 6%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Christian McCaffreyRB, SF, Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 p.m. ET | Javonte WilliamsRB, DAL, Thu, Oct 8, 8:15 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 17.6 | 15.6 |
| PPR projection | 19.8 | 17.0 |
| Standard projection | 15.3 | 14.3 |
| Rank this week | RB4 | RB6 |
| Matchup | at SEA | vs TB |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 16.5 | 18.6 |
| Last season per game | 21.5 | 14.1 |
| Snap share, last game | 74% | 74% |
| Trade value | 78 | 56 |