Christian McCaffreyorJeremiyah Love?

Week 4 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.

Our call

Start Christian McCaffrey

Christian McCaffrey outscores Jeremiyah Love in 68% of simulations.

Jeremiyah Love still comes out ahead in the other 32%, so Christian McCaffrey is the better bet, not a sure thing. Christian McCaffrey projects 4.8 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Jeremiyah Love has the better matchup against the New York Giants (15% more than average to RBs); Christian McCaffrey faces the Denver Broncos (7% fewer than average to RBs). Christian McCaffrey still wins more often despite that.

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

Christian McCaffrey
Floor
9.9
Median
18.1
Ceiling
29.5
Big game (20+):
40%
Dud (under 6):
1%
Jeremiyah Love
Floor
5.4
Median
12.6
Ceiling
25.3
Big game (20+):
20%
Dud (under 6):
13%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatChristian McCaffreyRB, SF, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ETJeremiyah LoveRB, ARI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection18.914.1
PPR projection21.416.0
Standard projection16.412.2
Rank this weekRB5RB9
Matchupvs DENat NYG
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game17.212.5
Last season per game21.5—
Snap share, last game83%64%
Trade value7025