Dalton SchultzorJuwan Johnson?

Week 4 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.

Our call

Start Juwan Johnson

Juwan Johnson outscores Dalton Schultz in 58% of simulations.

Dalton Schultz still comes out ahead in the other 42%, so Juwan Johnson is the better bet, not a sure thing. Juwan Johnson projects 1.3 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Dalton Schultz has the better matchup against the Dallas Cowboys (1% more than average to TEs); Juwan Johnson faces the Atlanta Falcons (10% fewer than average to TEs). Juwan Johnson still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, Juwan Johnson wins 65%.

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

Dalton Schultz
Floor
2.8
Median
7.7
Ceiling
16.6
Big game (15+):
14%
Dud (under 5):
27%
Juwan Johnson
Floor
4.0
Median
9.3
Ceiling
17.9
Big game (15+):
18%
Dud (under 5):
16%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatDalton SchultzTE, HOU, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ETJuwan JohnsonTE, NO, Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection9.010.3
PPR projection11.712.5
Standard projection6.28.0
Rank this weekTE13TE9
Matchupvs DALvs ATL
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game10.013.6
Last season per game8.08.3
Snap share, last game54%62%
Trade value—12