Jake FergusonorTucker Kraft?
Week 10 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Start Tucker Kraft
Tucker Kraft outscores Jake Ferguson in 61% of simulations.
Jake Ferguson still comes out ahead in the other 39%, so Tucker Kraft is the better bet, not a sure thing. Tucker Kraft projects 1.8 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. Jake Ferguson has the better matchup against the San Francisco 49ers (3% more than average to TEs); Tucker Kraft faces the Minnesota Vikings (34% fewer than average to TEs). Tucker Kraft still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.6
- Median
- 5.3
- Ceiling
- 12.9
- Big game (15+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 5):
- 47%
- Floor
- 2.4
- Median
- 7.2
- Ceiling
- 15.6
- Big game (15+):
- 12%
- Dud (under 5):
- 32%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Jake FergusonTE, DAL, Sun, Nov 15, 4:25 p.m. ET | Tucker KraftTE, GB, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 6.6 | 8.4 |
| PPR projection | 8.2 | 10.1 |
| Standard projection | 5.0 | 6.7 |
| Rank this week | TE21 | TE12 |
| Matchup | vs SF | vs MIN |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 5.6 | 8.0 |
| Last season per game | 8.7 | 12.6 |
| Snap share, last game | 34% | 82% |
| Trade value | — | 10 |