D'Andre SwiftorPuka Nacua?
Week 4 start/sit decision, running back or wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Puka Nacua
Puka Nacua outscores D'Andre Swift in 52% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: D'Andre Swift comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean Puka Nacua, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Puka Nacua projects 0.7 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. D'Andre Swift has the better matchup against the New York Jets (27% more than average to RBs); Puka Nacua faces the Philadelphia Eagles (7% fewer than average to WRs). Puka Nacua still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Puka Nacua wins 58%; in Standard leagues, D'Andre Swift is the pick at 55%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 6.4
- Median
- 14.7
- Ceiling
- 28.4
- Big game (20+):
- 29%
- Dud (under 6):
- 9%
- Floor
- 7.1
- Median
- 15.4
- Ceiling
- 28.5
- Big game (20+):
- 30%
- Dud (under 6):
- 6%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | D'Andre SwiftRB, CHI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Puka NacuaWR, LAR, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 16.5 | 17.2 |
| PPR projection | 17.8 | 20.8 |
| Standard projection | 15.1 | 13.5 |
| Rank this week | RB6 | WR2 |
| Matchup | vs NYJ | at PHI |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 17.4 | 9.9 |
| Last season per game | 13.2 | 19.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 69% | 70% |
| Trade value | 35 | 64 |