Deebo Samuel Sr.orKeenan Allen?

Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.

Our call

Lean Deebo Samuel Sr.

Deebo Samuel Sr. outscores Keenan Allen in 53% of simulations.

That's close to a coin flip: Keenan Allen comes out ahead in the other 47%. Lean Deebo Samuel Sr., and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Deebo Samuel Sr. projects 0.3 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Keenan Allen has the better matchup against the Washington Commanders (23% more than average to WRs); Deebo Samuel Sr. faces the Denver Broncos (15% fewer than average to WRs). Deebo Samuel Sr. still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, Deebo Samuel Sr. wins 59%.

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

Deebo Samuel Sr.
Floor
3.3
Median
8.4
Ceiling
17.4
Big game (20+):
6%
Dud (under 6):
31%
Keenan Allen
Floor
2.5
Median
7.8
Ceiling
17.4
Big game (20+):
6%
Dud (under 6):
36%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatDeebo Samuel Sr.WR, SF, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ETKeenan AllenWR, IND, Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 a.m. ET
Half-PPR projection9.69.3
PPR projection11.311.9
Standard projection8.06.7
Rank this weekWR23WR25
Matchupvs DENat WAS
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game11.87.5
Last season per game9.58.4
Snap share, last game76%73%
Trade value13—