Deebo Samuel Sr.orKeenan Allen?
Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Deebo Samuel Sr.
Deebo Samuel Sr. outscores Keenan Allen in 53% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Keenan Allen comes out ahead in the other 47%. Lean Deebo Samuel Sr., and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Deebo Samuel Sr. projects 0.3 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Keenan Allen has the better matchup against the Washington Commanders (23% more than average to WRs); Deebo Samuel Sr. faces the Denver Broncos (15% fewer than average to WRs). Deebo Samuel Sr. still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, Deebo Samuel Sr. wins 59%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 3.3
- Median
- 8.4
- Ceiling
- 17.4
- Big game (20+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 6):
- 31%
- Floor
- 2.5
- Median
- 7.8
- Ceiling
- 17.4
- Big game (20+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 6):
- 36%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Deebo Samuel Sr.WR, SF, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET | Keenan AllenWR, IND, Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 a.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 9.6 | 9.3 |
| PPR projection | 11.3 | 11.9 |
| Standard projection | 8.0 | 6.7 |
| Rank this week | WR23 | WR25 |
| Matchup | vs DEN | at WAS |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 11.8 | 7.5 |
| Last season per game | 9.5 | 8.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 76% | 73% |
| Trade value | 13 | — |