Devaughn VeleorJaylen Waddle?
Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Start Jaylen Waddle
Jaylen Waddle outscores Devaughn Vele in 58% of simulations.
Devaughn Vele still comes out ahead in the other 42%, so Jaylen Waddle is the better bet, not a sure thing. Jaylen Waddle projects 1.5 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Devaughn Vele has the better matchup against the Atlanta Falcons (13% more than average to WRs); Jaylen Waddle faces the San Francisco 49ers (1% fewer than average to WRs). Jaylen Waddle still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.2
- Median
- 6.6
- Ceiling
- 15.1
- Big game (20+):
- 4%
- Dud (under 6):
- 45%
- Floor
- 2.9
- Median
- 8.1
- Ceiling
- 17.5
- Big game (20+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 6):
- 33%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Devaughn VeleWR, NO, Mon, Oct 5, 8:15 p.m. ET | Jaylen WaddleWR, DEN, Sun, Oct 4, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 7.9 | 9.4 |
| PPR projection | 9.8 | 11.3 |
| Standard projection | 6.0 | 7.4 |
| Rank this week | WR41 | WR30 |
| Matchup | vs ATL | at SF |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 10.2 | 8.0 |
| Last season per game | 6.0 | 10.1 |
| Snap share, last game | 88% | 73% |
| Trade value | — | 3 |