DK MetcalforJosh Downs?
Week 10 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Start DK Metcalf
DK Metcalf outscores Josh Downs in 64% of simulations.
Josh Downs still comes out ahead in the other 36%, so DK Metcalf is the better bet, not a sure thing. DK Metcalf projects 2.0 half-PPR points ahead in Week 10. The matchups don't separate them: DK Metcalf faces the Cincinnati Bengals (10% fewer than average to WRs), Josh Downs faces the Miami Dolphins (11% fewer than average to WRs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 3.0
- Median
- 7.2
- Ceiling
- 14.4
- Big game (20+):
- 2%
- Dud (under 6):
- 38%
- Floor
- 2.2
- Median
- 5.4
- Ceiling
- 10.5
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 58%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | DK MetcalfWR, PIT, Sun, Nov 15, 8:20 p.m. ET | Josh DownsWR, IND, Sun, Nov 15, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 8.0 | 6.0 |
| PPR projection | 9.9 | 7.7 |
| Standard projection | 6.2 | 4.4 |
| Rank this week | WR35 | WR53 |
| Matchup | at CIN | vs MIA |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 7.7 | 6.5 |
| Last season per game | 10.5 | 6.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 92% | 77% |
| Trade value | — | — |