DK MetcalforJosh Downs?
Week 4 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Josh Downs
Josh Downs outscores DK Metcalf in 50% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: DK Metcalf comes out ahead in the other 50%. Lean Josh Downs, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. DK Metcalf projects 0.1 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Josh Downs has the better matchup against the Washington Commanders (23% more than average to WRs); DK Metcalf faces the Cleveland Browns (4% fewer than average to WRs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 3.5
- Median
- 8.0
- Ceiling
- 15.5
- Big game (20+):
- 3%
- Dud (under 6):
- 31%
- Floor
- 3.3
- Median
- 8.0
- Ceiling
- 15.2
- Big game (20+):
- 3%
- Dud (under 6):
- 32%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | DK MetcalfWR, PIT, Thu, Oct 1, 8:15 p.m. ET | Josh DownsWR, IND, Sun, Oct 4, 9:30 a.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 8.9 | 8.8 |
| PPR projection | 10.7 | 11.2 |
| Standard projection | 7.0 | 6.5 |
| Rank this week | WR28 | WR29 |
| Matchup | at CLE | at WAS |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 7.1 | 8.5 |
| Last season per game | 10.5 | 6.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 95% | 68% |
| Trade value | 3 | — |