Elijah MitchellorJustice Hill?
Week 8 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Elijah Mitchell
Elijah Mitchell outscores Justice Hill in 58% of simulations.
Justice Hill still comes out ahead in the other 42%, so Elijah Mitchell is the better bet, not a sure thing. Justice Hill projects 0.1 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Justice Hill has the better matchup against the Buffalo Bills (16% more than average to RBs); Elijah Mitchell faces the Washington Commanders (5% more than average to RBs). Elijah Mitchell still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.9
- Median
- 4.6
- Ceiling
- 9.2
- Big game (20+):
- <1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 68%
- Floor
- 0.5
- Median
- 3.5
- Ceiling
- 12.3
- Big game (20+):
- 3%
- Dud (under 6):
- 67%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Elijah MitchellRB, PHI, Sun, Nov 1, 8:20 p.m. ET | Justice HillRB, BAL, Sun, Nov 1, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 5.1 | 5.2 |
| PPR projection | 6.6 | 6.4 |
| Standard projection | 3.5 | 4.1 |
| Rank this week | RB48 | RB46 |
| Matchup | at WAS | at BUF |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 4.9 | 4.1 |
| Last season per game | 0.0 | 5.5 |
| Snap share, last game | 21% | 46% |
| Trade value | — | — |