Emmett JohnsonorKenny Gainwell?
Week 9 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Lean Kenny Gainwell
Kenny Gainwell outscores Emmett Johnson in 51% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Emmett Johnson comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean Kenny Gainwell, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Emmett Johnson projects 0.3 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Emmett Johnson has the better matchup against the New York Jets (17% more than average to RBs); Kenny Gainwell faces the Chicago Bears (9% fewer than average to RBs). Kenny Gainwell still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.3
- Median
- 6.2
- Ceiling
- 18.1
- Big game (20+):
- 7%
- Dud (under 6):
- 48%
- Floor
- 1.9
- Median
- 6.5
- Ceiling
- 16.5
- Big game (20+):
- 5%
- Dud (under 6):
- 46%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Emmett JohnsonRB, KC, Sun, Nov 8, 1:00 p.m. ET | Kenny GainwellRB, TB, Sun, Nov 8, 8:20 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 8.3 | 8.0 |
| PPR projection | 9.6 | 9.2 |
| Standard projection | 7.1 | 6.9 |
| Rank this week | RB28 | RB31 |
| Matchup | vs NYJ | at CHI |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 6.3 | 5.9 |
| Last season per game | — | 10.9 |
| Snap share, last game | 19% | 50% |
| Trade value | — | — |