Jake FergusonorSam LaPorta?
Week 4 start/sit decision, tight end versus tight end.
Our call
Start Sam LaPorta
Sam LaPorta outscores Jake Ferguson in 55% of simulations.
Jake Ferguson still comes out ahead in the other 45%, so Sam LaPorta is the better bet, not a sure thing. Sam LaPorta projects 1.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Sam LaPorta has the better matchup against the Carolina Panthers (6% more than average to TEs); Jake Ferguson faces the Houston Texans (9% fewer than average to TEs).
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.3
- Median
- 7.2
- Ceiling
- 16.3
- Big game (15+):
- 13%
- Dud (under 5):
- 33%
- Floor
- 3.2
- Median
- 8.4
- Ceiling
- 17.6
- Big game (15+):
- 16%
- Dud (under 5):
- 24%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Jake FergusonTE, DAL, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET | Sam LaPortaTE, DET, Sun, Oct 4, 8:20 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 8.6 | 9.7 |
| PPR projection | 10.5 | 12.0 |
| Standard projection | 6.7 | 7.4 |
| Rank this week | TE14 | TE11 |
| Matchup | at HOU | at CAR |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 9.2 | 9.1 |
| Last season per game | 8.7 | 9.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 69% | 92% |
| Trade value | — | 2 |