Jaylen WarrenorMalik Nabers?
Week 5 start/sit decision, running back or wide receiver.
Our call
Start Jaylen Warren
Jaylen Warren outscores Malik Nabers in 60% of simulations.
Malik Nabers still comes out ahead in the other 40%, so Jaylen Warren is the better bet, not a sure thing. Jaylen Warren projects 0.4 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. Malik Nabers has the better matchup against the Washington Commanders (17% more than average to WRs); Jaylen Warren faces the Indianapolis Colts (2% fewer than average to RBs). Jaylen Warren still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 5.7
- Median
- 11.6
- Ceiling
- 20.3
- Big game (20+):
- 11%
- Dud (under 6):
- 12%
- Floor
- 2.1
- Median
- 9.2
- Ceiling
- 25.6
- Big game (20+):
- 18%
- Dud (under 6):
- 34%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Jaylen WarrenRB, PIT, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | Malik NabersWR, NYG, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 12.5 | 12.1 |
| PPR projection | 13.9 | 14.6 |
| Standard projection | 11.1 | 9.6 |
| Rank this week | RB12 | WR12 |
| Matchup | vs IND | at WAS |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 12.4 | 8.9 |
| Last season per game | 12.3 | 12.0 |
| Snap share, last game | 97% | 76% |
| Trade value | 24 | 16 |