Ja'Marr ChaseorMalik Nabers?
Week 5 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Start Ja'Marr Chase
Ja'Marr Chase outscores Malik Nabers in 55% of simulations.
Malik Nabers still comes out ahead in the other 45%, so Ja'Marr Chase is the better bet, not a sure thing. Ja'Marr Chase projects 1.0 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. Malik Nabers has the better matchup against the Washington Commanders (17% more than average to WRs); Ja'Marr Chase faces the Miami Dolphins (14% fewer than average to WRs). Ja'Marr Chase still wins more often despite that. Ja'Marr Chase is listed as questionable.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.9
- Median
- 12.0
- Ceiling
- 25.7
- Big game (20+):
- 21%
- Dud (under 6):
- 22%
- Floor
- 2.1
- Median
- 9.2
- Ceiling
- 25.6
- Big game (20+):
- 18%
- Dud (under 6):
- 34%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Ja'Marr ChaseWR, CIN, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET | Malik NabersWR, NYG, Sun, Oct 11, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 13.1 | 12.1 |
| PPR projection | 16.1 | 14.6 |
| Standard projection | 10.1 | 9.6 |
| Rank this week | WR10 | WR12 |
| Matchup | at MIA | at WAS |
| Injury | Questionable | None |
| 2026 points per game | 12.4 | 8.9 |
| Last season per game | 15.7 | 12.0 |
| Snap share, last game | 20% | 76% |
| Trade value | 54 | 16 |