Jaylen WarrenorMichael Wilson?
Week 4 start/sit decision, running back or wide receiver.
Our call
Start Jaylen Warren
Jaylen Warren outscores Michael Wilson in 56% of simulations.
Michael Wilson still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Jaylen Warren is the better bet, not a sure thing. Jaylen Warren projects 0.4 half-PPR points ahead in Week 4. Michael Wilson has the better matchup against the New York Giants (11% more than average to WRs); Jaylen Warren faces the Cleveland Browns (5% fewer than average to RBs). Jaylen Warren still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, Jaylen Warren wins 64%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 5.4
- Median
- 11.1
- Ceiling
- 19.6
- Big game (20+):
- 9%
- Dud (under 6):
- 13%
- Floor
- 2.7
- Median
- 9.8
- Ceiling
- 23.2
- Big game (20+):
- 15%
- Dud (under 6):
- 30%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Jaylen WarrenRB, PIT, Thu, Oct 1, 8:15 p.m. ET | Michael WilsonWR, ARI, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 12.0 | 11.6 |
| PPR projection | 13.4 | 14.5 |
| Standard projection | 10.6 | 8.7 |
| Rank this week | RB14 | WR15 |
| Matchup | at CLE | at NYG |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 11.9 | 10.4 |
| Last season per game | 12.3 | 10.7 |
| Snap share, last game | 90% | 93% |
| Trade value | 21 | 15 |