Jaylen WarrenorTee Higgins?

Week 4 start/sit decision, running back or wide receiver.

Our call

Lean Jaylen Warren

Jaylen Warren outscores Tee Higgins in 50% of simulations.

That's close to a coin flip: Tee Higgins comes out ahead in the other 50%. Lean Jaylen Warren, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Tee Higgins projects 0.4 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. The matchups don't separate them: Jaylen Warren faces the Cleveland Browns (5% fewer than average to RBs), Tee Higgins faces the Jacksonville Jaguars (2% fewer than average to WRs).

Range of outcomes, half-PPR

Jaylen Warren
Floor
5.4
Median
11.1
Ceiling
19.6
Big game (20+):
9%
Dud (under 6):
13%
Tee Higgins
Floor
4.3
Median
11.0
Ceiling
22.8
Big game (20+):
15%
Dud (under 6):
19%

Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.

StatJaylen WarrenRB, PIT, Thu, Oct 1, 8:15 p.m. ETTee HigginsWR, CIN, Sun, Oct 4, 1:00 p.m. ET
Half-PPR projection12.012.4
PPR projection13.414.6
Standard projection10.610.3
Rank this weekRB14WR13
Matchupat CLEvs JAX
InjuryNoneNone
2026 points per game11.912.5
Last season per game12.312.1
Snap share, last game90%93%
Trade value2126