Jahmyr GibbsorKyren Williams?
Week 5 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Start Jahmyr Gibbs
Jahmyr Gibbs outscores Kyren Williams in 58% of simulations.
Kyren Williams still comes out ahead in the other 42%, so Jahmyr Gibbs is the better bet, not a sure thing. Jahmyr Gibbs projects 4.0 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. Kyren Williams has the better matchup against the Buffalo Bills (16% more than average to RBs); Jahmyr Gibbs faces the Arizona Cardinals (7% more than average to RBs). Jahmyr Gibbs still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 8.5
- Median
- 20.6
- Ceiling
- 41.4
- Big game (20+):
- 52%
- Dud (under 6):
- 5%
- Floor
- 9.2
- Median
- 17.5
- Ceiling
- 29.6
- Big game (20+):
- 39%
- Dud (under 6):
- 2%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Jahmyr GibbsRB, DET, Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 p.m. ET | Kyren WilliamsRB, LAR, Mon, Oct 12, 8:15 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 23.0 | 19.0 |
| PPR projection | 25.6 | 21.0 |
| Standard projection | 20.5 | 16.9 |
| Rank this week | RB1 | RB3 |
| Matchup | at ARI | vs BUF |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 26.3 | 19.8 |
| Last season per game | 19.3 | 14.4 |
| Snap share, last game | 87% | 83% |
| Trade value | 100 | 63 |