Jordan WatkinsorKendrick Bourne?
Week 5 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Start Jordan Watkins
Jordan Watkins outscores Kendrick Bourne in 56% of simulations.
Kendrick Bourne still comes out ahead in the other 44%, so Jordan Watkins is the better bet, not a sure thing. Jordan Watkins projects 0.1 half-PPR points ahead in Week 5. Kendrick Bourne has the better matchup against the Detroit Lions (24% more than average to WRs); Jordan Watkins faces the Seattle Seahawks (22% fewer than average to WRs). Jordan Watkins still wins more often despite that. Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Jordan Watkins wins 51%; in Standard leagues, Jordan Watkins wins 61%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 1.9
- Median
- 5.3
- Ceiling
- 11.2
- Big game (20+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 58%
- Floor
- 0.9
- Median
- 4.4
- Ceiling
- 12.8
- Big game (20+):
- 2%
- Dud (under 6):
- 62%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Jordan WatkinsWR, SF, Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 p.m. ET | Kendrick BourneWR, ARI, Sun, Oct 11, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 6.1 | 6.0 |
| PPR projection | 6.9 | 7.7 |
| Standard projection | 5.2 | 4.3 |
| Rank this week | WR47 | WR48 |
| Matchup | at SEA | vs DET |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 7.0 | 5.6 |
| Last season per game | 1.8 | 5.3 |
| Snap share, last game | 28% | 55% |
| Trade value | — | — |