Josh DownsorTyquan Thornton?
Week 6 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Josh Downs
Josh Downs outscores Tyquan Thornton in 52% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Tyquan Thornton comes out ahead in the other 48%. Lean Josh Downs, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Tyquan Thornton projects 0.5 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. Josh Downs has the better matchup against the Tennessee Titans (14% more than average to WRs); Tyquan Thornton faces the Los Angeles Chargers (8% fewer than average to WRs). Scoring matters here: in Standard leagues, Tyquan Thornton is the pick at 53%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.7
- Median
- 6.6
- Ceiling
- 13.0
- Big game (20+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 43%
- Floor
- 1.3
- Median
- 6.1
- Ceiling
- 17.0
- Big game (20+):
- 7%
- Dud (under 6):
- 50%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Josh DownsWR, IND, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 p.m. ET | Tyquan ThorntonWR, KC, Sun, Oct 18, 4:25 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 7.4 | 7.9 |
| PPR projection | 9.5 | 9.0 |
| Standard projection | 5.4 | 6.9 |
| Rank this week | WR34 | WR31 |
| Matchup | vs TEN | vs LAC |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 7.0 | 9.8 |
| Last season per game | 6.8 | 5.9 |
| Snap share, last game | 85% | 63% |
| Trade value | — | 1 |