Jordan WatkinsorJosh Downs?
Week 6 start/sit decision, wide receiver versus wide receiver.
Our call
Lean Josh Downs
Josh Downs outscores Jordan Watkins in 51% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: Jordan Watkins comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean Josh Downs, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. Jordan Watkins projects 0.3 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. The matchups don't separate them: Josh Downs faces the Tennessee Titans (14% more than average to WRs), Jordan Watkins faces the Washington Commanders (17% more than average to WRs). Scoring matters here: in PPR leagues, Josh Downs wins 57%; in Standard leagues, Jordan Watkins is the pick at 57%.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 2.3
- Median
- 6.6
- Ceiling
- 14.2
- Big game (20+):
- 3%
- Dud (under 6):
- 45%
- Floor
- 2.7
- Median
- 6.6
- Ceiling
- 13.0
- Big game (20+):
- 1%
- Dud (under 6):
- 43%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | Jordan WatkinsWR, SF, Mon, Oct 19, 8:15 p.m. ET | Josh DownsWR, IND, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 7.7 | 7.4 |
| PPR projection | 8.8 | 9.5 |
| Standard projection | 6.6 | 5.4 |
| Rank this week | WR33 | WR34 |
| Matchup | vs WAS | vs TEN |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 7.0 | 7.0 |
| Last season per game | 1.8 | 6.8 |
| Snap share, last game | 28% | 85% |
| Trade value | — | — |