MarShawn LloydorTreVeyon Henderson?
Week 6 start/sit decision, running back versus running back.
Our call
Lean MarShawn Lloyd
MarShawn Lloyd outscores TreVeyon Henderson in 51% of simulations.
That's close to a coin flip: TreVeyon Henderson comes out ahead in the other 49%. Lean MarShawn Lloyd, and let news and your league's scoring break the tie. TreVeyon Henderson projects 0.9 half-PPR points more, but more of that rests on the occasional big game. TreVeyon Henderson has the better matchup against the New York Jets (25% more than average to RBs); MarShawn Lloyd faces the Dallas Cowboys (17% more than average to RBs). MarShawn Lloyd still wins more often despite that.
Range of outcomes, half-PPR
- Floor
- 3.0
- Median
- 8.0
- Ceiling
- 17.1
- Big game (20+):
- 6%
- Dud (under 6):
- 34%
- Floor
- 2.2
- Median
- 8.0
- Ceiling
- 20.1
- Big game (20+):
- 10%
- Dud (under 6):
- 38%
Each week is simulated thousands of times from the projection and the player’s usual week-to-week swing. Floor and ceiling are the 10th and 90th percentile: 8 weeks in 10 land between them.
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| Stat | MarShawn LloydRB, GB, Sun, Oct 18, 8:20 p.m. ET | TreVeyon HendersonRB, NE, Sun, Oct 18, 1:00 p.m. ET |
|---|---|---|
| Half-PPR projection | 9.2 | 10.1 |
| PPR projection | 10.4 | 10.9 |
| Standard projection | 8.1 | 9.3 |
| Rank this week | RB18 | RB16 |
| Matchup | vs DAL | vs NYJ |
| Injury | None | None |
| 2026 points per game | 7.5 | 6.4 |
| Last season per game | — | 11.1 |
| Snap share, last game | 44% | 16% |
| Trade value | — | 3 |